Third week running, Reuters' poll of 14 leading analysts* continues to show a gradual decline in the numbers for the two main parties, and the increasing relevance of the Left for UPA to be able to reach or cross the magic number of 272. This poll does not aim to be scientific but to give readers a snapshot of how some of the leading India analysts are thinking...
1) Do you think the new government will carry out major pro-market economic reforms?
- Pro-market reforms - 3 choices
- Unlikely, but maybe a few piecemeal measures - 9 choices
- None at all - 0 choices
* Two analysts were unsure about their choice.
2) How many seats do you think Congress and the BJP will win?
- CONGRESS Average 138 (140) - Median 140 (140)
- BJP Average 127 (129) - Median 130 (130)
(There are 543 elected seats in parliament)
3) Assign percentages to the following scenarios:
- A UPA-led government with communist support
Average 33 pct (31) Median 38 pct (30)
- A UPA-led government without communist support
Average 21 pct (25) Median 23 pct (25)
- An NDA-led government
Average 23 pct (24) Median 24 pct (25)
- A Third Front-led coalition
Average 22 pct (19) Median 20 (13 pct)
4) Who will be the next Prime Minister of India?
- Prime Minister Manmohan Singh - 11 choices
- Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee - 1
- Mayawati (Uttar Pradesh state leader) - 1
- Mulayam Singh Yadav - 1 (Samajwadi party chief)
- L.K. Advani (BJP leader) - 0
*1) Amulya Ganguli, independent analyst; 2) Mahesh Rangarajan, independent analyst; 3) Phani Sekhar, fund manager, Angel Broking; 4) T.K. Bhaumik, chief economist, JK Organisation; 5) Alastair Newton, senior political analyst, Nomura International; 6) Rupa Rege Nitsure, Chief economist, Bank of Baroda, Mumbai; 7) Pran Chopra, Independent political commentator; 8) D.H. Pai Panandikar, The RPG Foundation; 9) Dr N. Bhaskara Rao, Centre for Media Studies; 10) Professor Sudha Pai, Jawahar Lal Nehru University; 11) Seema Desai, Eurasia Group; 12) Vinod Mehta, Editor-in Chief, Outlook Magazine; 13) V. Anantha Nageswaran, Chief Investment Officer, Asia Pacific, Julius Baer; 14) Yashwant Deshmukh, Head of C-Voter Polling Agency.