The Curious Case Of This Election's Exit Polls

Much has been said about the implications of the outcome of Bihar assembly elections. Victory of tolerance over intolerance, the triumph of democracy, a stunning defeat for dvisive politics. However, the one thing that has become startlingly clear is that as far as exit polls are concerned, most TV news channels and pollsters are clueless.

In September most opinion polls were pretty much of the opinion that BJP would win. That eventually changed and the exit polls that were doing the rounds after the final phase of the elections predicted a neck to neck fight between the two major camps, with the exception of Today's Chanakya which famously predicted Delhi elections 2013 and Lok Sabha elections 2014 accurately. Today's Chanakya predicted a landslide victory for BJP in Bihar. The twice-lucky Today's Chanakya tweeted an apology this morning after the emerging trends made it clear that their predictions were wrong.

#TCExitPoll We sincerely apologise all our friends & well wishers for not able to predict Bihar. Congratulations to the winning alliance.

— Today's Chanakya (@TodaysChanakya) November 8, 2015

The only pollster that accurately predicted the outcome of the Bihar polls was Axis APM which now claims that CNN-IBN refused to air the exit-poll they put together predicted a massive albeit unlikely victory for the Grand Alliance at 169-183 seats.

If only my former channel had trusted Axis APM instead of junking his poll : only pollster who got this right! such is life! #BiharResults

— Rajdeep Sardesai (@sardesairajdeep) November 8, 2015

If that wasn't enough, NDTV which is known for its reliable reporting called the Bihar assembly elections in favour of BJP as early as 9 am. After an hour of discussing the end of caste politics in India with BJP's massive victory, it was clear that NDTV had it completely wrong.

NDTV calls the election. BJP and allies all set to form the government in bihar with 145 to 149 seats #BiharBlockbuster

— barkha dutt (@BDUTT) November 8, 2015

Please don't feel bad, JDU+RJD. At least you won the exit polls. #BiharResults #BattlegroundBihar

— Sadanand Dhume (@dhume) November 8, 2015